Tropical Update

Q: Can you give us a tropical update?

A: Sure, here it is below.

It’s that time again (actually about 19 days ago is when the Atlantic Hurricane Season started), hurricane season is underway! This hurricane season is expected to be a very active one, possibly totaling anywhere from 14-23 named storms according to NOAA’s official hurricane outlook. I think we could easily see 16-18 named storms for this hurricane season. My new personal forecast is for 18 NS (Named Storms)/10 Hurricane/5 Major Hurricanes. Major Hurricanes need to have 111 mph or greater wind speeds, Hurricanes need to have 74 mph or greater wind speeds and tropical storms need 39 mph or greater wind speeds.

Eastern Pacific basin update

Let’s start with a look at the Eastern Pacific:

Notice that there are two swirling blobs of cloudiness and convection in this satellite loop from wunderground.com

The storm to the left is Tropical Storm Blas (TS); the storm to the right is Tropical Storm Celia.

The first tropical storm on the left has already peaked at its maximum intensity of 65 mph and will begin to weaken as it pulls away westward towards the cooler waters of the Eastern Pacific. The storm will further weaken upon encountering stronger shear as it heads further out towards 120 W. Wind shear makes it difficult for storms to develop because it blows away the thunderstorm cloud tops from the center of the storm, exposing the circulation. See track below and forecasted intensity from wunderground.com.

The next storm to the right of TD Blas is Hurricane Celia. This storm is expected to intensify into maybe a Category 3 Hurricane of 115 mph as it pulls away from the Mexico coastline and heads westward. It may start to weaken after it peaks near Major Hurricane intensity five days from now. This intensity is according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). See track of Hurricane Celia and intensity forecast below:

Elsewhere, a tropical wave right behind Celia could develop into the next Tropical storm by the end of this week, designated Invest 95E by the NHC.

Oh no, not another one. Discuss. Anti-storm bubble, activate now.

Atlantic basin update

Time for a look at the Atlantic basin. We do have a tropical critter that is being monitored by the NHC for tropical development dubbed Invest 92L. The tropical waves that have potential to develop are dubbed Invest 90-99 in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. The letters E and L are designated for the Eastern Pacific basins and Atlantic basins, respectively. (Why is L the designation for the Atlantic and not A? Find out next week.)

The NHC has only given Invest 92 a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. This is due to the following reasons, Invest 92 is surrounded by very high shear of 50 knots from a raging Sub Tropical jet stream situated across the Caribbean and this is inhibiting development, another factor is the dry air that surrounds the invest. See the shear and dry air maps below:

As you can see below, the shear has made the Invest look very disorganized and no clear center of circulation can be picked apart. Looks like shredded cheese.

A few of the global models do develop this invest further, if it survives the hostile wind shear and dry air environment it is currently in. Not to mention the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and the surrounding islands. The GFS (Global Forecast System) tracks this invest along the into the Gulf of Mexico and it re-develops there. Why? Conditions appear more favorable in the next 120 hours (5 days) as shear subsides below 20 knots as an anticyclone or high pressure area is in place in the Southern states. This would allow a tropical depression to be able to form given very warm ocean temperatures and not a whole lot of dry air. The invest eventually develops into a weak Tropical Storm, perhaps. Guess what happens next? You guessed it! It landfalls somewhere in the Gulf region as a very weak Tropical Storm or as an open wave. This would complicate the Gulf oil spill disaster and spread oil further inland on the coasts of the Gulf states. The wind speed is not enough to disperse the oil. Notice how the GFS tracks the storm system into the Gulf of Mexico and the storm produces rain in the Gulf states (Watch the green blob of moisture near the Texas/Louisiana border):

There is another model that supports the idea of Invest 92 becoming into something more than an open wave. This model is namely the ECMWF, by far one of the more accurate models. The tropical critter ends up in the Texas coast. See images for this models suggestions (Circled area is the current invest):

Elsewhere, the ECMWF, GGEM and NOGAPS develops a separate tropical wave in the Western Caribbean, a typical hot spot for June tropical cyclone formation. The wave tracks north into the Gulf of Mexico and gets near the oil spill area once again. Could potentially landfall in Texas as a Category 1 Hurricane based on the ECMWF model. I’m not sure I agree with its solution, high pressure has been anchored firmly in place and no cold fronts have been able to create a hole to allow this tropical critter to turn northward. See images for what the model is thinking (Watch the red L in the Caribbean off Central America). This tropical wave is being monitored by the NHC for development like the ECMWF suggests in the next few days. Currently, a low chance (20%) of becoming a depression by Tuesday.