Hurricane Season 2010 Outlook revised.

Q: Hey, what can we expect for this year’s hurricane bonanza? What are this year’s hurricane names?

A: Please see the details below.

Here is the hurricane names list for this upcoming season:
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

2010 Hurricane Season predicted results:
Total Number of Named Storms: 18-22 (average is 10)
Number of Hurricanes: 10
Number of Major Hurricanes: 6
(Subject to change)

Please see the figure below for a map of the track of tropical storms that form and areas of greatest concern:

(Note: The original forecast below is subject to be revised at a later time.)

Well, it’s that time again. Let us move past spring and look ahead to summer, with hurricane season looming in the horizon, you may wonder what is in store for this year’s hurricane season. As a gentle reminder, hurricane season begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. This is like engraving on marble, for the start and end dates of hurricane season. Today, I am going to issue a preliminary hurricane season outlook. I am by no means a hurricane expert; this is the first time I have issued a hurricane outlook two months ahead of the start of the season. Am I convinced that we will have a very active hurricane season this year? No, not yet at least.

I am more inline with the idea of a less active than usual hurricane season, last hurricane season ring a bell, anyone? It’s now time to get down the meat of the matter. There are a couple of key reasons that support my reasoning. To be brief, I will only discuss the most important reasons behind my thinking. One of these reasons is higher than normal wind shear across the main development regions of the tropical Atlantic, courtesy of the fading El Nino and the strong roaring subtropical jet. The main development regions of the tropical Atlantic are the Carribbean, Gulf of Mexico, Eastern Atlantic and Central Atlantic and closer to home just off the southeast coast in the early part of the season. Secondly, sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are well below normal except in the Central and Eastern Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are running well above average for this time of year. Lastly, a fading El Nino tends to create dry air over the Sahara that can drift over the development regions in Eastern Africa and choke storms that try to get going.

However, we don’t typically get a lot of our tropical storm development early on in the season in June or July from the Central or Eastern Atlantic development regions. In the early part of the season, we get most of our storms brewing either in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean or through a process known as frontogenesis. In meteorology, frontogenesis means the formation or strengthening of a front. For example, early season tropical storms that develop off the East Coast are more so due to the strengthening of low pressure along a front. These types of storms are also generally weak. The Gulf of Mexico this year is in the 98th percentile of the coldest due to a very cold winter in the South. The colder than normal Gulf of Mexico will probably hinder development of tropical storms early in the season, where one of the hotspots for tropical storm formation is. In general, colder ocean temperatures in the Atlantic basin as a whole favors a slower start to hurricane season as the Atlantic Ocean temperatures will need some time to heat up to levels sustainable for tropical storm development.

As a rule of thumb, tropical storms thrive in ocean temperatures of about 26 C, and the lack of temperatures at this level should hinder the total number of hurricanes that form. A second rule of thumb is tropical storms do not want dry air to be present, I will explain why this is not good for development later. Wind shear is another big issue because hurricanes can’t thrive in an environment with strong winds. Hurricanes thrive in an environment with light winds as you may have guessed. The stronger the shear, the more likely the tops of the thunderstorms will be blown away from the hurricane’s center of circulation. Thus, this would result in the center of circulation being exposed, which supports weakening of the storm. Drier air caused by El Nino also helps to expose the center of circulation which results in weakening as well.

Let’s wrap up and conclude, with harsh wind shear, dry air and cold ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, tropical storms will have a hard time forming, let alone surviving and reaching major status of category 3 or higher.