Major storm for MLK weekend, could it be another blizzard?

As the dry and mild pattern comes to an end towards the end of this week we will see a Gulf coast storm system develop on Friday and with an area of high pressure to the north in Canada, this would lead to a classic winter storm setup. The high pressure would supply cold air to the surface layers of the atmosphere from Canada and the storm would supply moisture. What does that equal? Snow.

The uncertainty with this storm? Track. As you can see in the first figure, if the storm stays offshore cold air would get drawn into the system due to a counter-clockwise flow and also warm air would stay offshore as the area would face the colder side of the storm as depicted in the second figure. We are more likely to see snow in this set up.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Another scenario that would be possible is what you see in figures 3 and 4, with low pressure hugging the coast and allowing more of the warmer air to intrude. This set up features less snow, and more ice or rain.

Figure 3:

Figure 4:

Lastly, as illustrated in figures 5 and 6, if the low tracks inland warm air will be drawn into the big cities, leading to more rain. This set up favors little snow and mostly rain.

Figure 5:

Figure 6:

Based on model guidance support the figure below is what I think may happen.

Figure 7:

At this point and time I am uncertain how much snow may accumulate with this storm and if we will reach blizzard conditions. So, check back later for updates around the end of this week.