An arctic air mass will charge southward from Canada thanks to a strong cold front passing through our area by Thursday afternoon. This cold front will be responsible for ushering in the arctic chill by Thursday of next week. This new dip in the jet will set the stage for where the boundary of the cold, arctic air and the warm, humid air sets up. A storm system will make landfall on the Pacific coast by Tuesday and this energy will reorganize once it reaches the southwest region. As the storm draws in Gulf moisture after cruising over the Gulf states, it will intensify upon crashing with the cold, arctic boundary in place up north. There will also be an area of cold high pressure building down from Canada. The jet stream will take a dip in such a way that allows for a storm to ride up the coast. The storms that track in such a fashion are usually referenced as a coastal low. I am uncertain of the exact track the storm will take and whether it can reach blizzard status, but as you can see in the following figures here are the two scenarios that I think are likely to happen.
In this scenario, the storm would track too far out to sea for the DC area to really get walloped and receive more than moderate intensity snowfall.
In this scenario, the storm tracks closer to the coast and can move up the coast as well. This scenario would favor heavy snowfall for most of the major cities along I-95.
Which scenario is likely to happen at this time? Stay tuned…
