New Year’s holiday forecast

Thursday Forecast:
Hi: 41 F
Lo: 36 F
Chance of snow: 90%
Chance of rain: 100%
Chance of wintry mix: 90%

Friday Forecast:
Hi: 45 F
Lo: 32 F
Chance of rain: 70%

Saturday Forecast:
Hi: 30 F
Lo: 19 F
Winds NW 20-30 mph, gusts up to 50 mph
Mostly Sunny and Windy

Sunday Forecast:
Hi: 33 F
Lo: 22 F
Winds NW 20-30 mph, gusts up to 50 mph
Mostly Sunny and Windy

Forecast discussion:

So, here we go, as we move forward we will get into a stormier pattern at least for the next two days. We have a weak wave of low pressure coming up the coast or on the coast originating from the Gulf of Mexico that will start as a brief period of snow changing over to rain while warmer air invades at the surface. As the warmer air intrudes expect the snow to change over to a period of sleet and freezing rain from 5 AM to before noon. After the warmer air invades at all levels we should see a full changeover to rain after noon. Accumulations will be very little if any. 1-2″ at most of snow. This is not the real storm. The second wave of low pressure forms after a northern jet and southern jet disturbance merge and this merger looks to take place too late for our area to see any snow from the “real” storm. The “real” storm will rapidly intensify as it nears the New England. Thus, New England is likely to take the brunt of this storm and blizzard conditions are possible up that way with 12″+ snowfall totals. We will likely dodge this storm and get some light to moderate rain as it cranks up after the merge is complete. The timing of the merge of the two disturbances on the individual branches of the jet stream is key to determining who gets the most snow. A late phase means we will miss out on the action, an early phase can lead to rain. Timing makes all the difference. After this storm “clears” out, not really, an arctic cold front will come through the area on the day Friday allowing bitter winds and arctic chill to resume. As the storm in New England stalls due to a massive ridge in Greenland, that will set up shop for where the cold air resides through the middle of the week. A few disturbances may rotate underneath that storm early next week. Little snow is expected from those disturbances.